Nigerian telecommunications operators have dismissed fears that a new cost-based study by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) on mobile termination rates will automatically trigger an increase in phone tariffs.
Telcos cautioned that such assumptions unfairly predict the market study’s outcome and cause unnecessary industry panic, noting that prices could actually decrease depending on the final results.
Engr. Gbenga Adebayo, Chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON) told Vanguard that the sector should not panic over routine regulator-stakeholder engagements. He noted that the NCC’s cost study is a standard exercise to determine the best path forward for specific telecom operations.
Adebayo emphasized that the NCC’s stakeholder meeting was simply to establish the approach for reviewing the eight-year-old Mobile Termination Rate (MTR). He questioned why observers immediately assumed the review would drive up consumer tariffs.
He stressed that the primary focus should be on industry players presenting accurate, transparent cost data to help set fair termination rates calling any premature conclusions an attempt to preempt a standard regulatory process.
The NCC appears to have yielded to persistent pressure from telecom operators for a comprehensive overhaul of Nigeria’s wholesale pricing structure following eight years during which mobile termination rates remained unchanged.
Operators argued that maintaining stagnant rates amidst foreign exchange volatility, high inflation, and escalating network maintenance expenses harms the entire ecosystem. They noted that frozen rates undermine service quality for subscribers and disrupt the fundamental financial stability of the telecommunications industry.
The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) hosted a stakeholder’s consultation forum in Lagos on Tuesday officially launching a comprehensive review of Mobile Termination Rates (MTR) the inter-operator wholesale fee charged per minute for connecting cross-network calls to rival subscribers.
The current Mobile Termination Rates set at ₦3.90 per minute for dominant operators and ₦4.70 for new entrants have remained unchanged since 2018 persisting through one of the most economically turbulent periods in Nigeria’s recent history.
Over that six-year span, severe naira devaluation, soaring inflation and rising energy expenses compounded operational pressures, even as telcos invested trillions of naira to expand and modernize network infrastructure.
The NCC confirmed that international consulting firm KPMG will conduct the study.
The scope extends beyond voice call termination to encompass a wider overhaul of Nigeria’s telecom ecosystem including international termination rates, USSD charges, Application-to-Person (A2P) messaging, retail voice price caps and wholesale regulatory frameworks for Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs).
Additionally, the review will evaluate whether current interconnection frameworks remain fit for purpose in a telecom market that is increasingly powered by digital services rather than legacy voice revenues.
KPMG highlighted that emerging technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence, IoT and digital finance platforms have fundamentally reshaped network economics. Concurrently, the growth of internet-based messaging and calling services continues to shrink legacy voice revenues, disrupting the traditional financial models that historically sustained cross-network interconnection.
Adebayo endorsed the review, emphasizing that the telecom sector must shift away from sporadic tariff adjustments toward a transparent, predictable and cost-reflective pricing model.
He noted that the review comes at a crucial juncture for an industry that has matured into a primary pillar of Nigeria’s economy. Data presented at the forum highlighted this trajectory showing telecom investments surging from roughly $500 million at the time of sector liberalization in 2001 to over $75.6 billion today.
By March 2026, Nigeria’s mobile subscription base reached 185.7 million with internet users climbing to 153.15 million and monthly data usage topping 1.42 million terabytes. The telecommunications sector also accounted for 8.12 percent of the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Despite this expansion, operators maintain that their underlying cost dynamics have shifted dramatically since the 2018 MTR benchmark. Telcos face severe operational headwinds including interest rates topping 33 percent, foreign exchange volatility, persistent inflation, high diesel costs, expensive equipment imports, frequent fiber optic cuts from road works, network vandalism and multiple state-level taxation.
The sector poured approximately ₦2.13 trillion into capital expenditure in 2025 and has earmarked another ₦1.86 trillion for infrastructure investments this year.
Telecom operators maintain that these capital outlays are target-focused, channeling capital directly toward 5G expansion, rural network penetration, cybersecurity upgrades, sustainable energy infrastructure and general system resilience.
The commission considers the review imperative given how dramatically Nigeria’s telecommunications landscape has evolved since the previous benchmark was established in 2018.
The commission acknowledged that today’s communications market bears little resemblance to the landscape that informed the 2018 benchmark.
However, it raised concerns about striking the delicate balance between operator sustainability and consumer protection, reassuring stakeholders that any future determination will be strictly evidence-based designed to guarantee fair competition, encourage continued investment and shield subscribers from excessive pricing.
Nkechi Araka, Assistant Director of Policy Competition and Economic Analysis at the commission, noted that the review became necessary as major technological shifts and macroeconomic changes fundamentally altered the underlying cost of delivering telecom services.
The regulator highlighted key industry catalysts driving this transformation, including the expansion of 5G networks the rising reliance on over-the-top (OTT) services like WhatsApp, the entry of Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) and escalating consumer demand for high-quality connectivity.
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The NCC stated that the review will evaluate whether current rates accurately reflect the true cost of providing termination services, while also re-examining whether the asymmetric pricing model which permits smaller operators to charge higher termination rates remains appropriate for today’s market.
However, the Association of Telecommunications Companies of Nigeria (ATCON) urged the regulator to retain asymmetric pricing for smaller operators holding under 10 percent market share, arguing that these protections are still vital to maintain fair competition and foster market participation.
ATCON President Tony Izuagbe Emoekpere represented by Broadbased Communication’s Chief Marketing Officer Chidi Ibisi warned that compounding operational costs are severely straining operator’s capacity to sustain the capital investments required to power Nigeria’s digital economy ambitions.
